Pre‑ballot Wealth Exodus

A ballot‑stage wealth tax (or even its credible threat) can prompt high‑net‑worth residents to shift domicile or move assets before a measure qualifies, materially shrinking the taxable base. California’s example shows departures by major tech and entertainment figures removed roughly $536 billion from the state’s base before the vote, cutting projected receipts by more than half. — Policy designers and voters must account for pre‑enactment mobility when estimating revenues and political effects of asset‑targeted taxes, or risk large forecast errors and unintended competitiveness losses.