Prediction Markets as Protected Speech

Prediction markets function primarily as information institutions, like journalism or protest, because trades can communicate facts or beliefs in ways words cannot. Regulators should evaluate them under similar speech‑sensitive standards rather than treating them first as gambling or purely financial risk instruments. — Framing trades as speech shifts CFTC and judicial approaches: it raises First Amendment questions, changes how insider‑trading and manipulation risks are balanced, and affects political and policy forecasting markets.