Prediction markets beat primary polls

In some low‑information primary contests, real‑money prediction markets can price in strategic transfers, turnout signals, and cross‑candidate dynamics that late polling misses, and thus predict winners more reliably than small or volatile primary polls. This is especially visible when markets move sharply in the final days and then align with the eventual vote count. — If markets consistently outperform polls in primaries, journalists, campaigns, and donors should treat market prices as a distinct, actionable signal alongside polling when assessing candidate viability and endorsement calculus.