Prediction Markets Lack Institutional Uptake

High‑quality, high‑volume geopolitical prediction markets now exist (Polymarket, etc.), but their probabilistic outputs are not yet institutionalized into policymaking, media coverage, or diplomatic routines. That missing institutional plumbing—official channels that monitor, vet, cite, and act on market probabilities—explains why markets haven’t 'revolutionized' public decision‑making despite producing useful, convergent probabilities. — If prediction markets are to improve public decisions (foreign policy, disaster planning, elections), we need durable institutional linkages (media standards, official dashboards, legal guidance, whistleblower‑resistant ingestion protocols) that translate market probabilities into accountable action.