Prediction Markets Pick Ad Agencies

Instead of paying ad firms by the hour, companies could run conditional markets that estimate net firm value for each agency’s bid (sales uplift minus ad costs) and select the bid with the highest forecast. This leverages dispersed expertise while avoiding oversized, risky performance contracts that small ad firms can’t bear. Market manipulation risks and subsidy costs are likely lower than restructuring the industry around giant, risk‑bearing agencies. — It offers a realistic on‑ramp for futarchy in the private sector that could extend to wider supplier selection and even government procurement.