Prediction Markets Saw $5 Gas Coming Before the Pundits Did

Real‑money and prediction‑market prices can serve as rapid, public early‑warnings for politically salient economic shocks: in this case Polymarket odds and trader pricing implied a strong chance of retail gas exceeding $5/gal within weeks, preceding visible polling shifts. News and official price series then translate those market signals into a concentrated political narrative about incumbent competence. — If prediction markets reliably anticipate shock events that reshape approval, journalists, campaigns, and policymakers will increasingly monitor markets as political risk indicators.