A transparent, regularly updated index that combines historical polling error and disclosure/transparency practices into a single predictive score for each pollster, giving journalists, campaigns and courts a simple, auditable prior about how much weight to place on any given poll.
— A public predictive index changes how media, campaigns and regulators treat polls—reducing blind amplification of noisy surveys and improving the calibration of forecasts, reporting, and legal evidence that rely on poll numbers.
Eli McKown-Dawson
2026.01.14
88% relevant
Silver’s update of pollster ratings and his note that 2025 poll errors (e.g., New Jersey, Virginia) were large demonstrates the value of a standardized pollster credibility metric; the article is a practical instance of why a predictive, provenance‑aware pollster index is needed.
Nate Silver
2026.01.14
100% relevant
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin update implements exactly this idea: the Predictive Plus‑Minus score and letter grades across ~460 new polls since June 2024 are the operational example.
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