Premarital Wage Growth Skews Marriage Premium

Reanalysis of NLSY ’79 wage trajectories shows earnings begin rising as much as six years before marriage and dip after divorce. Because standard fixed‑effects models use soon‑to‑marry singles as comparisons, they likely understate the marriage premium if the premarital ramp is part of the causal effect. This pattern also challenges explanations centered solely on household labor division or employer favoritism. — It reframes the marriage premium as partly an anticipatory, behavioral dynamic and a measurement issue, altering how researchers, media, and policymakers interpret gender gaps and family policy.