Premature Sigmoid Assumption

Analysts and institutions frequently assume that recent exponential growth has already entered the flattening phase (a sigmoid), but without mechanistic justification this assumption often misses how long fast growth can persist. The mistake recurs across domains—AI capabilities, renewable deployment, demographic decline—and creates systematic underestimation of near‑term change. — Recognizing and naming this forecasting error would improve how policymakers, investors, and regulators weigh near‑term risks and set contingency plans across technology, energy, and social policy.