Primary churn as governance risk

A spike in incumbents leaving before a general election (74 in 2026 per Pew) is not just an electoral story — it is a governance story: rapid pre‑election turnover increases the share of freshmen, reduces institutional memory, complicates committee staffing, and raises the odds that many districts will be represented by nominees chosen in low‑turnout contests. The 2026 pattern (most running for other office on record and 28 pursuing different offices) concentrates uncertainty well before general ballots are cast. — More pre‑election churn can alter legislative capacity and partisan control dynamics, making primary rules, vacancy procedures, and candidate pipelines issues of public policy importance.