Evaluate UFO/alien reports by (1) listing the minimal facts that need explanation, (2) naming the assumptions required to predict those facts, (3) assigning a prior probability to each assumption, and (4) multiplying them to get a total prior that informs how seriously to treat the evidence.
— Provides a disciplined, transparent method for journalists, investigators, and the public to adjudicate extraordinary sightings and reduce rumor, hype, and confirmation bias.
Robin Hanson
2026.10.17
100% relevant
Robin Hanson’s worked example: he lists assumptions (grabby‑aliens 0.3–1, panspermia 0.01–0.1, no‑colonize rule 0.01–0.1, low‑discretion visiting team 0.3–1) and multiplies them to get a prior ~3×10⁻⁴.
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