Prison Closure as Policy Lever

When a major detention facility is closed (or its replacement is withheld), the resulting loss of capacity forces local officials to adopt alternative criminal‑justice arrangements—whether decarceration, diversion, or informal releases—regardless of enacted statutes. Urban infrastructure timelines and procurement decisions can therefore be as determinative of incarceration levels as legislatures or courts. — This reframes criminal‑justice reform: controlling physical jail capacity is a tactical lever that can accelerate or block abolitionist agendas and reshape public‑safety politics.