Prominent scientist gives 2% nuclear‑war risk

Nobel laureate David Gross publicly estimated a roughly 2% per‑year chance of nuclear war today, implying a ~35‑year expected time to such an event and arguing that treaty erosion, more nuclear states, and AI/automation raise that probability. He frames this as a conservative estimate and urges simple remediation (e.g., renewed diplomatic/treaty engagement). — A high‑profile numeric risk estimate from a respected physicist reframes public and policy conversations about near‑term existential threats, making abstract nuclear and AI risks concrete and politically actionable.