Provisional Data Masks Overdose Trend

Provisional mortality counts lag and can undercount recent overdose deaths, so short‑term year‑to‑year dips (e.g., 2023’s reported −1.4%) may be misleading until final CDC data arrive. Policymakers and media that treat provisional declines as durable risk misallocating harm‑reduction resources or changing enforcement priorities prematurely. — Understanding and publicizing the limits of provisional overdose data is crucial because it affects resource allocation (naloxone, treatment), border and interdiction policy, and public perception of whether the crisis is improving.