Public AI‑backed Prediction Ledger

Updated: 2026.09.12 3H ago 1 sources
An openly searchable database that ingests, timestamps and evaluates tens of thousands of public predictions using automated methods (AI to match claims to outcomes) so forecasts can be audited, ranked, and statistically analyzed. Such a ledger makes pundit accountability measurable and lets researchers test forecasting methods across decades and domains. — If widely adopted, a public, AI‑driven prediction ledger would shift how media, policymakers and markets weigh expert claims by supplying reproducible accuracy records and reducing reputation‑based authority.

Sources

The Prediction Archive
Alex Tabarrok 2026.09.12 100% relevant
Alex Tabarrok’s 'The Prediction Archive' — a public database using AI to track decades of world predictions and compute Wilson‑score rankings for forecasters — is a concrete instantiation of this ledger concept.
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