Public Pollster Predictive Plus‑Minus Index

Make a standardized, publicly archived pollster reliability index—based on historical error, mean‑reversion bias, and disclosure standards—that newsrooms, courts, campaigns, and researchers must cite when quoting or using polls. The index should include machine‑readable provenance (number of polls, races covered, AAPOR/ Roper flags) and a simple grade so non‑experts can quickly see how much weight to place on a poll’s headline. — A common, transparent pollster index would reduce amplification of low‑quality surveys, improve forecasting calibration, and strengthen democratic accountability by making methodological quality a visible public standard.