Punctuated decline in cooperation

Cooperation in repeated group settings follows a boom‑(reminder) then fade pattern: formal resets (e.g., loan cycles, voting reminders) temporarily restore compliance, but each reset produces smaller and shorter cooperation surges as participants desensitize. Large administrative datasets can detect this pattern in real-world systems and predict when institutional action is needed. — If common public‑goods problems (benefit payments, vaccinations, turnout) follow punctuated decline, policymakers should design periodic, escalating resets or automate compliance to prevent long-run decay rather than assuming steady rational contributions.