Quantify registry effects before citing prevalence

Updated: 2015.01.04 11Y ago 1 sources
National prevalence reports should routinely publish a standardized, quantitative decomposition of observed trend changes into components: diagnostic‑criteria shifts, registry coverage changes (inpatient→outpatient), and residual (possible incidence) change. The approach uses time‑dependent covariates on population cohorts to estimate attributable fractions, so reported prevalence numbers come with an auditable attribution. — Requiring a transparent attribution statement with every prevalence release would prevent misleading headlines, focus policy on service needs driven by true incidence, and improve public trust in health statistics.

Sources

Explaining the increase in the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders: the proportion attributable to changes in reporting practices - PubMed
2015.01.04 100% relevant
Hansen et al. (JAMA Pediatr 2015) applied a stratified Cox model with time‑dependent covariates for Denmark and estimated that registry/diagnostic changes explained ~60% of the ASD prevalence rise — a concrete template for the proposed reporting standard.
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