National prevalence reports should routinely publish a standardized, quantitative decomposition of observed trend changes into components: diagnostic‑criteria shifts, registry coverage changes (inpatient→outpatient), and residual (possible incidence) change. The approach uses time‑dependent covariates on population cohorts to estimate attributable fractions, so reported prevalence numbers come with an auditable attribution.
— Requiring a transparent attribution statement with every prevalence release would prevent misleading headlines, focus policy on service needs driven by true incidence, and improve public trust in health statistics.
2015.01.04
100% relevant
Hansen et al. (JAMA Pediatr 2015) applied a stratified Cox model with time‑dependent covariates for Denmark and estimated that registry/diagnostic changes explained ~60% of the ASD prevalence rise — a concrete template for the proposed reporting standard.
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