Quantifying Urbanization Without Growth

The piece estimates that if Africa matched East Asia’s urbanization payoffs, 2050 GDP per capita would be just over $18,000 instead of about $10,300. That implies a roughly 75% income gap driven by weakly realized agglomeration effects. The cost of inaction is framed as trillions in foregone prosperity. — It gives policymakers a concrete magnitude for what stalled agglomeration means, prioritizing reforms that convert density into productivity.