Rally Effects Strengthen Iran’s Theocracy

The 12‑Day War produced a sovereignty‑first rally in Iran that muted dissent and blunted hopes for a regime collapse tied to the 2022 protests. Diaspora monarchist appeals—encouraged by Israel’s public courting of Reza Pahlavi—misread this dynamic, while domestic reformists remain divided or sidelined. — It cautions foreign and diaspora actors that external shocks and symbolism can reinforce, not weaken, Tehran’s hold, reshaping expectations for sanctions, covert action, or exile‑led projects.