People think most clearly on moderate‑scope choices; tiny choices run on autopilot, while huge personal or collective decisions get captured by emotion, symbols, and sacred narratives. We then rationalize the outcomes after the fact. This pattern explains why big policy routinely diverges from explicit goals and evidence.
— If rationality is scale‑dependent, institutions should restructure big decisions to mimic mid‑scale reasoning or decompose them into smaller, testable choices.
Robin Hanson
2025.08.31
100% relevant
Hanson: “Human rationality seems to peak at modest scale decisions, and to fall greatly for much smaller or larger decisions,” noting engineering/finance methods don’t generalize and academia/journalism only modestly help.
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