Real‑time Crime Data Lacks Causal Power

Independent, up‑to‑date indices (like the Real Time Crime Index covering ~377 agencies) can reliably detect national trend direction but often lack geographic completeness and consistent jurisdictional coverage, preventing robust tests of why crime rises or falls. That sampling bias — big cities plus scattered counties — makes it hard to compare city centers to suburbs or to evaluate policy interventions. — If policymakers and reporters rely on partial real‑time data without acknowledging coverage gaps, they may draw incorrect conclusions about which policies or local conditions drove recent declines.