Reasoning correlation enables selfish cooperation

Updated: 2026.04.27 2H ago 1 sources
If many agents use the same decision procedure, an individual's choice becomes evidence about others' choices; under realistic small error rates, that correlation can make a globally cooperative action (here, 'blue') individually rational even for selfish agents. The threshold depends on the error rate and how much you value others you care about versus yourself. — This reframes debates about voting and coordination: institutions and norms that make reasoning public or shared (or align decision procedures) can turn individually risky collective choices into stable, rational equilibria.

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The math and assumptions behind the red-blue thought experiment
Alexander Kruel 2026.04.27 100% relevant
The article uses the red/blue thought experiment with an individual error rate ε (e.g., 0.001), safety margin m, and contrasts Causal Decision Theory with Evidential/Functional decision theories to show how correlated reasoning flips the individual payoff calculus.
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