Recessions Are Shock‑Driven

Rather than being the natural aftermath of excess (an inevitable correction after a boom), recessions are often triggered by external adverse shocks — such as wars, sanctions, or energy‑price spikes — and they typically do not reset growth on a higher trend through creative destruction. If true, policy should focus more on shock prevention, resilience, and targeted supply‑side fixes than on treating recessions as productivity‑enhancing purges. — This reframes macro policy from 'let markets purge' toward resilience and shock‑mitigation, altering debates over fiscal/monetary stabilization, industrial policy, and strategic reserves.