Reciprocal‑Sphere Doctrine

A tacit, mutually learned practice in which great powers accept each other’s use of targeted coercion inside their respective regional spheres, turning kinetic or clandestine actions into a norm of reciprocal enforcement rather than a rule‑breaking exception. The doctrine emerges not from treaties but from observed behavior (e.g., US raid on Maduro) and elite signalling that short‑circuits formal multilateral constraints. — If it takes hold, this informal doctrine will reframe international law, alliance commitments, and deterrence calculations — making bilateral understandings and transactional enforcement the dominant mode of great‑power order.