Recruitment Crisis As War Referendum

Updated: 2025.08.25 1M ago 1 sources
Treat enlistment avoidance, desertion charges, and illegal border flight as revealed‑preference indicators of a population’s willingness to continue a war. When these behavior metrics worsen, they can outweigh polling that shows resolve by signaling mounting social resistance and state capacity strain. — It reframes wartime policy by prioritizing behavior-based indicators over stated attitudes when judging sustainability and legitimacy of continued fighting.

Sources

Ending the War is Pro-Ukraine
Branko Marcetic 2025.08.25 100% relevant
The piece cites 20,000 men illegally fleeing, 100,000 desertion cases (mostly in the last year), and a 'serious recruitment crisis' in Ukraine.
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