Texas’s proposed mid-decade map aims to flip about five seats, but that payoff only holds if Republicans maintain their 2024 surge among Hispanic voters. If those margins revert toward pre-2020 levels, several newly drawn districts become competitive or even backfire. Gerrymander ROI is now contingent on volatile subgroup alignments, not just static partisanship.
— It reframes gerrymandering as a risky demographic bet rather than a guaranteed structural edge, affecting party strategy and legal arguments about map predictability.
by Robert T. Garrett for ProPublica and The Texas Tribune
2025.08.25
45% relevant
By reporting a Texas map 'crafted to net Republicans up to five more seats,' the piece connects to prior analysis that such gains hinge on maintaining recent GOP margins with Hispanic voters; the legal‑threat tactic provided the vehicle to lock in those bets mid‑cycle.
Nate Silver
2025.08.25
70% relevant
Silver cautions that projected partisan seat gains are overconfident because 'safe' seats can flip in waves, echoing the existing idea that modern gerrymanders hinge on volatile subgroup alignments and may backfire.
Eli McKown-Dawson
2025.08.18
100% relevant
The article’s premise: 'It all depends on whether the GOP can hold onto their gains among Hispanic voters,' tied to a five-seat target under the new Texas map.