Refining, Not Mining, Drives Dependency

Updated: 2026.01.15 13D ago 1 sources
China controls an outsized share of global refining and component assembly for green technologies even while most raw extraction occurs elsewhere; this creates chokepoints where geopolitical or export disruptions to mines, refineries, or specialized parts (bearings, power‑conversion modules, logic controllers) will ripple through global decarbonization and manufacturing timelines. — If true, it reframes industrial policy: democracies must secure both mineral sources and the downstream refining/assembly capacity (or limit dependencies) rather than assuming raw‑material geography tells the whole story.

Sources

China’s supply chain problems
Tyler Cowen 2026.01.15 100% relevant
Tsinghua study on wind turbines (60% bearings imports, 70% transistor modules, 100% logic modules) and FT reporting on China’s dominating refining shares for lithium/cobalt/manganese versus very low domestic mining shares (22%, 3%, 4%).
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