A population study from Denmark finds that changes in diagnostic criteria (1994) and adding outpatient records (1995) explain about 60% (95% CI, 33%–87%) of the observed rise in autism spectrum disorder prevalence among children born 1980–1991. The paper uses national registry data and time‑dependent hazard models to separate reporting effects from true incidence.
— If large parts of autism prevalence increases are due to reporting and registry changes, policymakers, clinicians, and parents should recalibrate expectations for causes, service demand projections, and research priorities.
2026.03.05
90% relevant
The article uses the California Department of Developmental Services (CDDS) data and the history of DSM diagnostic changes (e.g., DSM‑III) to argue that changes in who is counted, when they are diagnosed, and how "autism" is defined largely drive observed increases—directly matching the claim that registry/definition shifts explain the rise.
2020.03.05
90% relevant
This paper finds heritability of autism spectrum disorder and autistic traits remained very high and stable across birth cohorts (STR and CATSS cohorts born 1982–2008; ASD heritability reported 0.88–0.97), supporting the existing idea that rising diagnosed prevalence is driven more by diagnostic practice, screening, and registry/ascertainment change than by new large environmental risk factors.
2017.03.05
80% relevant
The authors emphasise methodological limitations (study design, exposure measurement, timing) and imply diagnostic/registry artefacts could confound observed trends—this connects to the idea that changes in surveillance, registry definitions, and reporting contribute to apparent autism prevalence increases.
2015.01.05
100% relevant
Quantified result: Denmark registry change in 1994 and inclusion of outpatient contacts in 1995 together explain ~60% of reported ASD prevalence increase (JAMA Pediatrics, Hansen et al., 2015).
2006.09.05
60% relevant
While registry and diagnostic changes are often invoked to explain rising autism prevalence, this study's population linkage approach (Israeli draft board registry) and control for covariates show a measurable biological correlate (paternal age) that could account for at least part of observed trends, so it should be weighed against registry artifact explanations.