A party can assemble a winning presidential coalition by shoring up non‑college white voters and making inroads with some minority groups, even as it cedes affluent, well‑educated suburban counties where it once dominated. That shift creates strategic questions: is this coalition durable, and can the party simultaneously defend working‑class geographies when macro factors (e.g., energy prices) change?
— If true, it reframes what winning looks like for the Republican Party and forces new debates over tradeoffs between class, race, and place in electoral strategy.
Steve Sailer
2026.11.02
100% relevant
Sailer's county‑level tabulation: Trump lost vote share relative to Romney in 37 of 50 state richest counties and saw a 15.6‑point drop in Johnson County, KS, even while gaining nationally and improving among several non‑white groups in 2024.
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