Require autism‑trend robustness maps

Updated: 2024.10.30 1Y ago 3 sources
Before governments or school systems treat rising autism counts as evidence of a changing incidence and reallocate major resources, require a published robustness map that decomposes observed prevalence change into components (diagnostic substitution/accretion, registry/coverage changes, and residual incidence) using sibling controls, negative controls, E‑values and sensitivity bounds. — Demanding standardized, auditable decompositions would prevent policy overreactions, target services where true need increased, and reduce politicized misinterpretation of administrative counts.

Sources

Getting Real About Autism’s Exponential Explosion — NCSA
2024.10.30 88% relevant
The article argues the autism increase is real and exponential and cites administrative series (California Developmental Services, CDC ADDM) while criticizing alternative explanations based on diagnostic change — exactly the sort of claim that calls for 'robustness maps' (systematic checks of registry, diagnostic, and ascertainment effects across time and place) before using prevalence trends to guide policy.
Explaining the increase in the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders: the proportion attributable to changes in reporting practices - PubMed
2015.01.05 75% relevant
By decomposing drivers of observed prevalence growth into measurable registry events, the paper exemplifies the kind of robustness mapping—showing how surveillance, coding, and service access changes shift trends—that such methodological standards aim to produce.
Diagnostic change and the increased prevalence of autism - PubMed
2009.10.04 100% relevant
King & Bearman’s 2009 California analysis estimated ~26% of the observed prevalence rise was due to diagnostic change via a documented pathway (MR→autism), illustrating the value of quantifying diagnostic‑practice effects before acting.
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