Central banks' near‑term inflation misses after Covid were driven in part by abandoning attention to money aggregates (broad M3 growth). Re‑incorporating money‑supply measures into policy briefings and forecasts could improve medium‑term inflation prediction and change the timing and scale of interest‑rate responses.
— If true, this would reshape central‑bank transparency, the inputs used for policy decisions, and public accountability for inflation outcomes.
Alex J. Pollock
2026.03.16
100% relevant
Tim Congdon documents that U.S. M3 recorded its fastest growth since WWII in 2020, that the Fed's minutes omitted references to money aggregates, and that his money‑based forecasts anticipated the 2021–22 inflation surge.
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