Policymakers and markets should stop treating debt‑to‑GDP as the sole or dominant indicator of fiscal health and adopt a small battery of theoretically grounded measures (interest‑to‑GDP, debt‑to‑equity/wealth, and debt service burden) reported and debated together. Using multiple, provenance‑explained indicators reduces the risk of policy overreaction or complacency driven by a single, potentially misleading ratio.
— This reframes fiscal debates: metric choice changes perceived sustainability and therefore tax, spending, and monetary policy decisions across countries and time horizons.
Tyler Cowen
2026.01.06
100% relevant
Tyler Cowen highlights an NBER working paper (Berk & van Binsbergen) that empirically shows debt/GDP diverges from interest/GDP and debt/equity trends and calls for stronger theoretical foundations for indebtedness measures.
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