Robustness maps before drug warnings

Updated: 2025.12.03 3D ago 6 sources
A Japanese national study applied sibling controls, inverse‑probability weighting, propensity matching, negative controls, E‑values, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis and found no Tylenol–autism link. This shows how pre‑specified robustness tests can vet observational pharmacoepidemiology before it is used in guidance. — Agencies should require transparent robustness maps (negative controls, E‑values, sensitivity bounds) before issuing public health warnings based on observational data to avoid misleading policy.

Sources

Study Finds Tattoo Ink Moves Through the Body, Killing Immune Cells
BeauHD 2025.12.03 70% relevant
Both call for stronger evidentiary standards before making public‑health changes: the tattoo paper is an early, preclinical signal that would need translational robustness (replication, human epidemiology, sensitivity analyses) before policy; the existing idea argues for pre‑specified robustness checks and maps in pharmaco/epidemiology to avoid premature warnings or misdirected policy.
Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
Steve Sailer 2025.12.02 60% relevant
Wainer et al.’s critique of Mississippi’s NAEP gains calls for robustness checks and bias‑sensitive analyses before declaring a policy triumph; this parallels the recommendation that policy claims based on observational data need pre‑specified robustness maps (negative controls, sensitivity bounds) before being exported as reforms.
"For the first time, the US FDA will acknowledge that COVID-19 vaccines have killed American children."
Chris Bray 2025.11.30 82% relevant
Prasad’s memo, as reported, emphasizes limits of analysis and under‑reporting — directly connecting to the existing recommendation that agencies should publish robustness checks (negative controls, sensitivity bounds) before issuing strong safety claims or public‑health guidance; the article spotlights an instance where such transparency (or lack thereof) will matter politically and medically.
The NHS’s Puberty Blocker Experiment Is Science Theater
Andy Lewis 2025.11.29 72% relevant
The author’s demand for linkage of child‑clinic data to adult outcomes and for pre‑specified, rigorous tests mirrors the 'robustness map' idea—i.e., regulators should require stronger epidemiologic designs, negative controls, and sensitivity analyses rather than treating weak cohort claims as settled.
Establishing Causation Is a Headache
Theodore Dalrymple 2025.10.14 70% relevant
By invoking Bradford Hill criteria and warning against multiple‑comparison artifacts, the piece supports the principle that agencies and leaders should require pre‑specified robustness checks before issuing drug‑safety cautions—precisely the governance fix proposed for observational pharmacoepidemiology.
Tylenol and Autism: A Replication!
Cremieux 2025.10.03 100% relevant
The Japan administrative database study (2005–2022; 182,830 mothers, 217,602 children) coupled sibling design with negative controls and E‑values and reported null effects.
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