Rapid exchange‑rate collapses can be triggered by the interplay of sanctions, sudden regulatory shifts (e.g., forcing importers to buy FX at market rates), and mass anecdotal panic, producing hyperinflation and political protests within weeks. Such collapses create immediate humanitarian and geopolitical hazards (capital flight, shortages, amplified protest risk and possible military escalation).
— This reframes sanctions and FX interventions as potential accelerants of state fragility—policy design must anticipate currency‑panic feedbacks and their spillovers into unrest and escalation.
Tyler Cowen
2026.01.15
100% relevant
Tyler Cowen’s summary lists the rial’s dramatic devaluation, 42.5% December inflation, importers forced to buy FX, and ensuing protests plus an apparent air attack as the proximate sequence.
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