Second‑term populist collapse

A returning populist incumbent can still produce a sharp political collapse during a second term because governance failures, economic pain, and performative policy stunts (e.g., emergency cash promises) rapidly erode even loyal coalitions. This collapse can flip midterm outcomes and force party elites to distance themselves, accelerating institutional damage. — If true, the idea reframes how political risk is assessed: successful returns from populist leaders do not guarantee durable power and can instead accelerate party realignment and electoral losses.