Sequence of Economic Shocks Matters

Political risk from economic turmoil depends not just on how bad shocks are but on their order and the policy responses that follow — e.g., post‑war inflation followed by stabilization then depression and austerity creates different democratic vulnerabilities than a single, isolated crisis. Recognizing sequencing clarifies why superficially similar economic dislocations produce divergent political outcomes across countries and eras. — If true, policymakers should prioritize the timing and sequencing of stabilization and social‑protection measures to reduce the risk that economic pain translates into authoritarian politics.