Single Civilization Predicts Big Decline

The post proposes a simple model that reconciles long‑run world growth with repeated civilizational boom‑bust cycles: civilizations rise and fall, while the peak size of the largest civ keeps growing. Because today’s world functions as one integrated civilization, the next cyclical fall would hit globally and could be on the order of ~80% within a few centuries. — It challenges standard growth and AI‑optimist narratives by arguing global integration itself creates systemic crash risk, not just local recessions or regional collapses.