Special‑election turnout asymmetry

When a high‑turnout special election produces large gains for one party while the other’s turnout falls, it likely reflects persuasion or core‑voter failure rather than just mobilization differences. The Georgia and Wisconsin specials — held the day after a Republican president’s extreme rhetoric — showed high Democratic turnout and low Republican turnout, indicating cross‑aisle persuasion. — Special‑election turnout asymmetry can foreshadow broader partisan shifts and should change how campaigns and pollsters interpret isolated electoral wins or losses.