Special‑election wins mislead forecasts

Single victories—especially in atypical timing or low‑turnout contests—are weak, noisy indicators of broader electoral shifts. Media and analysts routinely overgeneralize from these results, producing misleading narratives and poor strategic decisions by campaigns and parties. — If polls and pundits keep inflating the meaning of isolated wins, parties will misallocate resources and the public will get distorted expectations about the stakes of upcoming elections.