Special elections as momentum tests

Off‑cycle contests (special elections, runoffs) function as short‑term referendum machines: national parties and super‑PACs pour money and messaging into a single district to test turnout, themes, and organzational playbooks that will be scaled for the next general cycle. These micro‑contests therefore act as policy, messaging, and mobilization laboratories whose outcomes change narrative leverage and donor flows. — If parties and donors treat special elections as real‑time laboratories for 2026 strategy, their results will distort messaging, funding, and candidate selection at national scale—making single local races materially consequential.