Parties can schedule structural ballot measures (e.g., redistricting control) in special elections where their base is likelier to turn out and overperform. This 'timing arbitrage' converts turnout asymmetries into durable institutional advantages without changing public opinion.
— It reframes election administration as a power lever where calendar design, not just content, shapes democratic rules.
Neeraja Deshpande
2025.10.12
60% relevant
Kogan’s proposed fix—moving school board elections to November of even years to dilute organized adult interests—echoes the broader insight that election timing and turnout engineering shape structural outcomes; both argue calendar design is a power lever over institutional rules.
Nate Silver
2025.08.25
100% relevant
Silver notes Prop 50 will be on a special‑election ballot and that Democrats have recently overperformed in specials, increasing passage odds beyond the already favorable 55–34 poll and 87% market price.
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