Spheres Test: Venezuela, Ukraine, Taiwan

Three simultaneous crises—Venezuela (U.S. intervention rhetoric and claims on oil), Ukraine (Russian restraint or escalation), and Taiwan (Chinese coercive drills vs. U.S. arms posture)—are a single geopolitical experiment: whether the post‑Cold War rules‑based order holds or a patchwork of great‑power spheres re‑emerges. Each case forces allied commitments, legal justifications for intervention, and regional allegiance choices that will cascade into alliance structures and norms about sovereignty. — If these contests produce durable spheres, states and publics must rewrite policy on alliances, trade, investment security, and the limits of intervention—so democratic debate now determines durable international rules.