Stop Mixing BLS Surveys

Updated: 2025.08.20 2M ago 2 sources
Politicians are citing subgroup swings in the BLS household survey to claim that either immigrants or natives get 'all' new jobs, then pairing that with payroll (establishment) job totals. These datasets measure different things and aren't add‑up compatible; combining them is a 'multiple‑count data felony.' Use the establishment survey for total job growth and treat household subgroup moves as noisy, longer‑window indicators. — Better dataset hygiene would prevent narrative‑driven labor claims from steering immigration and employment policy.

Sources

The imaginary war on American workers
Jordan Weissmann 2025.08.20 100% relevant
Labor Secretary Lori Chavez‑DeRemer and DHS touted a 'native‑born jobs surge' that Jed Kolko flagged as a cross‑survey misuse.
Glenn Kessler, the fraud
José Duarte 2025.08.01 75% relevant
Kessler reportedly cites establishment payroll totals to tout overall job gains while using household‑survey subgroup figures (native‑born vs foreign‑born) to rebut Trump, a cross‑dataset mixing the existing idea flags as misleading in labor debates.
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