Stop Waiting for UFO Proof

Hanson argues decades of sightings have yielded little decisive progress and that further reports are unlikely to materially change our decisions. He proposes a four‑step pipeline: estimate per‑report probabilities, aggregate by category, infer alien traits from theory, then pick actions (broadcasting, defenses, search). The UFO community’s taboo on steps 3–4 has stalled policy despite sufficient uncertainty to act. — This reframes UFOs as a decision‑making problem under persistent uncertainty, pushing institutions to do expected‑value policy rather than endlessly seek consensus proof.