Sunbelt polls missed Democratic gains

Pew’s 2026 analysis shows especially large signed polling errors in southern swing states — Texas and Georgia each had about 8.9‑point understatements of the Democratic margin, with North Carolina and others also showing big misses. The pattern suggests regional or electorate‑specific biases (turnout models, differential response, late swings) that standard national adjustments may not capture. — If polling systematically underestimates one party in specific regions, campaigns, media, and forecasters will misallocate attention and resources and voters and officials may lose faith in election forecasting.