Swamp Betrayal Costs Populists

When leaders build careers on an anti‑elite, 'drain the swamp' promise, visible self‑enrichment or aid to cronies reverses that advantage: voters who leaned populist punish perceived elites even within their own movement. This dynamic can flip midterms and reshape the messaging and vetting calculus for insurgent candidates. — If true, parties and anti‑establishment movements must police enrichment and pay more attention to appointments and deals, because perceived hypocrisy is an electoral liability.