TACO equilibrium caps oil spikes

Traders deliberately suppress futures prices when they expect politicians will intervene to avoid politically painful price spikes. That suppression means market prices stop acting as the primary rationing mechanism during supply shocks; instead rationing happens through physical allocation (refineries, regional shortages, shipping) and political decisions. — If political‑intervention expectations routinely mute market price signals, policymakers and analysts must look beyond futures prices to see who actually bears the costs of supply shocks and how to design durable resilience.