Tax Cuts Inflate Stocks, You Pay

Updated: 2025.09.28 23D ago 2 sources
Corporate tax changes—100% bonus depreciation and looser interest deductions under the One Big Beautiful Bill—raise after‑tax profits and lift equity values. But with federal debt above $37 trillion, higher future taxes on individuals will likely fund part of today’s market gains. The stock rally thus functions partly as an intertemporal transfer from future taxpayers to current shareholders. — It reframes market euphoria and tax policy as distributional timing choices, not just growth boosters, with implications for fiscal design and intergenerational equity.

Sources

Why economists get Trumpism wrong
Wolfgang Munchau 2025.09.28 63% relevant
The article predicts a major equity rally (S&P 500 potentially to 10,000) under Trump’s unfunded tax cuts, arguing markets won’t discipline tariffs or Fed pressure—consistent with the idea that policy can lift valuations in the short run while shifting costs to taxpayers later.
What are the markets telling us?
Tyler Cowen 2025.09.01 100% relevant
Cowen: 'You are paying for some of those higher stock market values,' citing bonus depreciation, interest deductions, and the $37T debt stock.
← Back to All Ideas