Tenure Bias in Incarceration Rates

Comparing incarceration stocks across groups without adjusting for length of residence (tenure) produces a mechanical bias: recent immigrants have had fewer years in which to accumulate convictions, so their stock incarceration rate will understate their per‑period offending rate. Analyses that want to infer relative crime rates must use flow measures or tenure‑adjusted comparisons (e.g., arrest incidence per person‑year since arrival) or risk large distortions. — Correcting for immigrant tenure changes the empirical basis for debates on immigration enforcement, allocation of policing resources, and public messaging about crime and migration.